A (previous) Working Group for the Development of

Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models

A link to SCEC home page venture in cooperation with the Link to USGS home page


RELM papers published in the Jan/Feb 2007 (Vol. 78, Num. 1) issue of Seismological Research Letters (click titles to download PDFs):

Overview of the Working Group for the Development of Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM)
Edward H. Field

Earthquake Likelihood Model Testing
D. Schorlemmer, M. C. Gerstenberger, S. Wiemer, D. D. Jackson, and D. A. Rhoades

RELM Testing Center
D. Schorlemmer and M. C. Gerstenberger

Seismic Hazard Inferred from Tectonics: California
Peter Bird and Zhen Liu

Real Time Forecasts through an Earthquake Clustering Model Constrained by the Rate-and-State Constitutive Law: Comparison with a Purely Stochastic ETAS Model
Rodolfo Console, Maura Murru, Flaminia Catalli, and Giuseppe Falcone

Non-Poissonian Earthquake Clustering and the Hidden Markov Model as Bases for Earthquake Forecasting in California
John E. Ebel, Daniel W. Chambers, Alan L. Kafka, and Jenny A. Baglivo

Short-term Aftershock Probabilities: Case Studies in California
M. C. Gerstenberger, L. M. Jones, and S. Wiemer

High-resolution Time-independent Grid-based Forecast for M ≥ 5 Earthquakes in California
Agnès Helmstetter, Yan Y. Kagan, and David D. Jackson

A RELM Earthquake Forecast Based on Pattern Informatics
James R. Holliday, Chien-chih Chen, Kristy F. Tiampo, John B. Rundle, Donald L. Turcotte, and Andrea Donnellan

A Testable Five-Year Forecast of Moderate and Large Earthquakes in Southern California Based on Smoothed Seismicity
Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, and Yufang Rong

Time-independent and Time-dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment for the State of California: Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Model 1.0
Mark D. Petersen, Tianqing Cao, Kenneth W. Campbell, and Arthur D. Frankel

Application of the EEPAS Model to Forecasting Earthquakes of Moderate Magnitude in Southern California
David A. Rhoades

Implications of Geodetic Strain Rate for Future Earthquakes, with a Five- Year Forecast of M5 Earthquakes in Southern California
Zheng-Kang Shen, David D. Jackson, and Yan Y. Kagan

Methods for Evaluating Earthquake Potential and Likelihood in and around California
Steven N. Ward

ALM: An Asperity-based Likelihood Model for California
Stefan Wiemer and Danijel Schorlemmer